Trump Signed a US-Iran Ceasefire. Weeks Later It Collapsed Into Strikes.

Update, June 24, 2026: Japan is weighing a naval deployment to demine the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Iran ceasefire, Al Jazeera reported June 24. The proposal has triggered a domestic debate in Tokyo over Japan’s post-World War II pacifist constitution.

President Trump instructed the Department of Justice on Tuesday night to investigate oil companies for alleged price gouging, accusing them of not lowering pump prices in proportion to falling crude costs. Brent crude dropped below $75 per barrel for the first time since the conflict began, while US gas prices fell from a May peak of $4.56 per gallon to a current average of $3.92, according to The Guardian.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains below pre-conflict levels despite its reopening, and experts cited by The Guardian said gas prices are unlikely to return to prewar levels before year’s end due to reduced production and refinery capacity. US inflation reached a three-year high of 4.2% in May, driven largely by elevated energy costs.

Update, June 26, 2026: The ceasefire described in this brief broke down within days after Iranian forces attacked the container ship Ever Lovely south of Sirik, off Oman’s coast. In response, six U.S. aircraft struck four Iranian targets in Sirik, hitting radar installations and missile and drone storage sites along the Strait of Hormuz, according to PBS NewsHour.

Iran called the U.S. strikes “a reckless violation of the ceasefire” and vowed a response it described as “swift and decisive,” according to Al Jazeera. Vice President JD Vance told Tehran to “pick up the phone” and warned that “violence will be met with more violence.”

The strait itself remains the central dispute: Iran is requiring commercial vessels to use a northern route near its border rather than the southern route near Oman that the U.S. prefers, per PBS NewsHour. Negotiators who brokered the original agreement have not announced a revised timeline for reopening the waterway.

Update, June 28, 2026: The June 17 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran has collapsed into mutual strikes, with both sides formally accusing the other of violating its terms. The IRGC launched ballistic missiles and drones at Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait and the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. U.S. Central Command struck five coastal locations in Iran, targeting missile and drone storage sites and radar installations. Kuwait condemned the strikes on its soil as a “flagrant violation of its sovereignty,” and Bahrain said they undermined “opportunities for de-escalation and stability in the region.”

The dispute centers on Article 5 of the MoU, which requires Iran to arrange free safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days and to complete demining within 30 days. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking at a press conference in Baghdad on June 28, said the strait remains under Tehran’s “total oversight and management” and warned that any outside intervention would delay its reopening. The IRGC had on Thursday forced four tankers transiting the southern corridor in Omani territorial waters to reverse course, citing an “authorised route” running through Iranian waters, according to maritime monitor Windward AI.

Ship transits through the strait dropped from 70 on Wednesday to 40 on Saturday, per Windward AI. President Trump posted on Truth Social that U.S. forces struck Iranian sites “for violating the Cease Fire Agreement, AGAIN!” and warned that Iran “will no longer exist” if the U.S. is forced to “militarily complete the job.”

Update, July 7, 2026: The U.S. military launched a new round of strikes against Iran on July 7 after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fired missiles at three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG tanker that caught fire and a Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker. The Trump administration called the attacks a “clear violation of the cease-fire” and revoked a sanctions waiver that had permitted the sale of Iranian oil, according to PBS NewsHour.

President Trump threatened to “finish the job” if Tehran did not reach a final deal. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that negotiations on a final agreement would not begin as long as threats continued, Democracy Now reported.

Ian Ralby, president of maritime security firm Auxilium Worldwide, told PBS NewsHour that all three established transit corridors through the strait were likely closed as of July 7, and that shipping companies were beginning to route vessels through the Red Sea instead. The U.S. military official who spoke to PBS correspondent Nick Schifrin described the new strikes as an effort to “turn up the volume” on the Iranian government.

Update, July 9, 2026: President Trump declared the June memorandum of understanding “over” on Wednesday after multiple commercial ships traveled through the Strait of Hormuz without coordinating with Iran, triggering Iranian attacks on those vessels. The US responded with strikes on 90 targets across Iran, including sites near the Bushehr nuclear power plant, according to Democracy Now reporting. Iran’s Health Ministry reported at least 14 people killed and 78 wounded since the US resumed its strikes.

Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US military bases across the Gulf region, and Jordan’s military said it intercepted eight missiles in its airspace. Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bhager Ghalibaf, said the US “still hasn’t learned that bullying and breaking promises are no longer cost-free.” The US also revoked sanctions waivers on Iranian oil that had been granted under the MOU terms.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, called the collapse “a disastrous development” for the diplomatic track the MOU established. Ryan Costello, policy director at the National Iranian American Council, told Al Jazeera that Iran now views Strait of Hormuz control as a deterrent lever that may outweigh its nuclear program as a long-term bargaining asset. Congressional midterms in November and low US strategic petroleum reserves add domestic pressure on both governments to reach a new agreement.

Update, July 11, 2026: Trump declared the ceasefire over after Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz prompted a new round of U.S. strikes, though he said negotiations would continue. Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader, issued his first public statement since the funeral of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the war’s opening strikes on Feb. 28, vowing that revenge against the United States “is the will of our nation and must certainly be carried out.”

On July 11, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with his Omani counterpart to discuss “appropriate mechanisms for ensuring the safe passage of ships” through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Associated Press via PBS News. Oman said both governments agreed to keep talking “at the technical and political levels,” one day after Washington called on Iran to publicly confirm the waterway is open. Iran has insisted on controlling transit through the strait and charging ships for passage since the war began.

Iran retaliated for U.S. strikes by targeting Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Qatar. Iranian Health Ministry spokesperson Hossein Kermanpour said the two-day exchange killed at least 17 people and wounded 115 inside Iran. Trump threatened 1,000 “locked and loaded” missiles on social media, citing Iranian threats against his life.

Update, July 13, 2026: President Trump announced on Truth Social on Monday that the United States would assume control of the Strait of Hormuz and charge all cargo vessels a 20% toll on shipped goods. The announcement reverses a position Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated as recently as June 25, when he said no country could legally charge tolls on an international waterway.

Trump also reimposed the U.S. military blockade on Iran, which the White House had lifted in June as a condition of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. U.S. Central Command said its forces struck dozens of Iranian targets on Sunday in retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the strait.

The United Nations’ International Maritime Organization condemned any attempt by Washington or Tehran to impose tolls, saying doing so would violate freedom of navigation norms. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that continued U.S. military intervention in the strait “could lead to greater incidents in the global oil and gas sector,” according to Reuters.

Update, July 16, 2026: The interim ceasefire has collapsed, and U.S. forces struck targets around Tehran and Semnan province on July 16, marking the first time in this round of fighting that attacks reached near Iran’s capital. Semnan is home to Iran’s ballistic missile production and space program. Iran’s military spokesperson Col. Ebrahim Zolfaghari called the Strait of Hormuz an “invincible red line” and warned that U.S. strikes on bridges or power plants would trigger attacks on infrastructure across the region.

The U.S. reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports on July 15 and fired on a Curacao-flagged tanker that it said ignored warnings while sailing toward Iran’s main oil export terminal. Iranian officials reported more than 35 people killed and over 300 wounded since the latest round of strikes began, according to PBS News. Iran retaliated on July 16 with missile and drone strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait, both of which host U.S. forces.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps separately threatened to open a second front at the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea chokepoint connecting to the Gulf of Aden, using Houthi allies in Yemen to disrupt shipping there, according to Al Jazeera. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said on July 16 that it is still working to bring both governments back to the negotiating table but acknowledged the effort is becoming harder. Brent crude traded above $85 a barrel on July 16, more than 15% above its pre-war price, raising political pressure on Trump ahead of November’s congressional elections.

Update, July 19, 2026: An Iranian negotiator announced that Tehran is suspending its commitments to the interim ceasefire deal and accused the U.S. of violating it. The U.S. military reported a service member killed in Iraq on Saturday during the controlled detonation of a downed Iranian drone, bringing the total number of U.S. deaths since the war began to 17, according to the Associated Press.

Iran fired missiles toward the Jordanian port city of Aqaba on Sunday, and Israeli military officials warned that debris could cross into Israeli territory for the first time in weeks. Kuwait reported that a power and water desalination plant was struck for the second consecutive day, causing fires. Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary-General Jasem Mohamed al-Budaiwi accused Iran of war crimes for the strikes on civilian infrastructure.

The 60-day window the interim deal established to negotiate a permanent settlement has passed its halfway point. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned of “unforgettable lessons” if U.S. strikes continue, while Iranian authorities reported at least 50 people killed and 517 wounded in the latest attacks. The U.S. also reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, redirecting five ships and disabling one since the blockade began.