Trump Signed a US-Iran Ceasefire. Weeks Later It Collapsed Into Strikes.

Update, June 24, 2026: Japan is weighing a naval deployment to demine the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Iran ceasefire, Al Jazeera reported June 24. The proposal has triggered a domestic debate in Tokyo over Japan’s post-World War II pacifist constitution.

President Trump instructed the Department of Justice on Tuesday night to investigate oil companies for alleged price gouging, accusing them of not lowering pump prices in proportion to falling crude costs. Brent crude dropped below $75 per barrel for the first time since the conflict began, while US gas prices fell from a May peak of $4.56 per gallon to a current average of $3.92, according to The Guardian.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains below pre-conflict levels despite its reopening, and experts cited by The Guardian said gas prices are unlikely to return to prewar levels before year’s end due to reduced production and refinery capacity. US inflation reached a three-year high of 4.2% in May, driven largely by elevated energy costs.

Update, June 26, 2026: The ceasefire described in this brief broke down within days after Iranian forces attacked the container ship Ever Lovely south of Sirik, off Oman’s coast. In response, six U.S. aircraft struck four Iranian targets in Sirik, hitting radar installations and missile and drone storage sites along the Strait of Hormuz, according to PBS NewsHour.

Iran called the U.S. strikes “a reckless violation of the ceasefire” and vowed a response it described as “swift and decisive,” according to Al Jazeera. Vice President JD Vance told Tehran to “pick up the phone” and warned that “violence will be met with more violence.”

The strait itself remains the central dispute: Iran is requiring commercial vessels to use a northern route near its border rather than the southern route near Oman that the U.S. prefers, per PBS NewsHour. Negotiators who brokered the original agreement have not announced a revised timeline for reopening the waterway.

Update, June 28, 2026: The June 17 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran has collapsed into mutual strikes, with both sides formally accusing the other of violating its terms. The IRGC launched ballistic missiles and drones at Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait and the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. U.S. Central Command struck five coastal locations in Iran, targeting missile and drone storage sites and radar installations. Kuwait condemned the strikes on its soil as a “flagrant violation of its sovereignty,” and Bahrain said they undermined “opportunities for de-escalation and stability in the region.”

The dispute centers on Article 5 of the MoU, which requires Iran to arrange free safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days and to complete demining within 30 days. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking at a press conference in Baghdad on June 28, said the strait remains under Tehran’s “total oversight and management” and warned that any outside intervention would delay its reopening. The IRGC had on Thursday forced four tankers transiting the southern corridor in Omani territorial waters to reverse course, citing an “authorised route” running through Iranian waters, according to maritime monitor Windward AI.

Ship transits through the strait dropped from 70 on Wednesday to 40 on Saturday, per Windward AI. President Trump posted on Truth Social that U.S. forces struck Iranian sites “for violating the Cease Fire Agreement, AGAIN!” and warned that Iran “will no longer exist” if the U.S. is forced to “militarily complete the job.”

Update, July 7, 2026: The U.S. military launched a new round of strikes against Iran on July 7 after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fired missiles at three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG tanker that caught fire and a Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker. The Trump administration called the attacks a “clear violation of the cease-fire” and revoked a sanctions waiver that had permitted the sale of Iranian oil, according to PBS NewsHour.

President Trump threatened to “finish the job” if Tehran did not reach a final deal. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that negotiations on a final agreement would not begin as long as threats continued, Democracy Now reported.

Ian Ralby, president of maritime security firm Auxilium Worldwide, told PBS NewsHour that all three established transit corridors through the strait were likely closed as of July 7, and that shipping companies were beginning to route vessels through the Red Sea instead. The U.S. military official who spoke to PBS correspondent Nick Schifrin described the new strikes as an effort to “turn up the volume” on the Iranian government.

Update, July 9, 2026: President Trump declared the June memorandum of understanding “over” on Wednesday after multiple commercial ships traveled through the Strait of Hormuz without coordinating with Iran, triggering Iranian attacks on those vessels. The US responded with strikes on 90 targets across Iran, including sites near the Bushehr nuclear power plant, according to Democracy Now reporting. Iran’s Health Ministry reported at least 14 people killed and 78 wounded since the US resumed its strikes.

Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US military bases across the Gulf region, and Jordan’s military said it intercepted eight missiles in its airspace. Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bhager Ghalibaf, said the US “still hasn’t learned that bullying and breaking promises are no longer cost-free.” The US also revoked sanctions waivers on Iranian oil that had been granted under the MOU terms.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, called the collapse “a disastrous development” for the diplomatic track the MOU established. Ryan Costello, policy director at the National Iranian American Council, told Al Jazeera that Iran now views Strait of Hormuz control as a deterrent lever that may outweigh its nuclear program as a long-term bargaining asset. Congressional midterms in November and low US strategic petroleum reserves add domestic pressure on both governments to reach a new agreement.

Update, July 11, 2026: Trump declared the ceasefire over after Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz prompted a new round of U.S. strikes, though he said negotiations would continue. Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader, issued his first public statement since the funeral of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the war’s opening strikes on Feb. 28, vowing that revenge against the United States “is the will of our nation and must certainly be carried out.”

On July 11, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with his Omani counterpart to discuss “appropriate mechanisms for ensuring the safe passage of ships” through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Associated Press via PBS News. Oman said both governments agreed to keep talking “at the technical and political levels,” one day after Washington called on Iran to publicly confirm the waterway is open. Iran has insisted on controlling transit through the strait and charging ships for passage since the war began.

Iran retaliated for U.S. strikes by targeting Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Qatar. Iranian Health Ministry spokesperson Hossein Kermanpour said the two-day exchange killed at least 17 people and wounded 115 inside Iran. Trump threatened 1,000 “locked and loaded” missiles on social media, citing Iranian threats against his life.

Update, July 13, 2026: President Trump announced on Truth Social on Monday that the United States would assume control of the Strait of Hormuz and charge all cargo vessels a 20% toll on shipped goods. The announcement reverses a position Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated as recently as June 25, when he said no country could legally charge tolls on an international waterway.

Trump also reimposed the U.S. military blockade on Iran, which the White House had lifted in June as a condition of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. U.S. Central Command said its forces struck dozens of Iranian targets on Sunday in retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the strait.

The United Nations’ International Maritime Organization condemned any attempt by Washington or Tehran to impose tolls, saying doing so would violate freedom of navigation norms. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that continued U.S. military intervention in the strait “could lead to greater incidents in the global oil and gas sector,” according to Reuters.

Update, July 16, 2026: The interim ceasefire has collapsed, and U.S. forces struck targets around Tehran and Semnan province on July 16, marking the first time in this round of fighting that attacks reached near Iran’s capital. Semnan is home to Iran’s ballistic missile production and space program. Iran’s military spokesperson Col. Ebrahim Zolfaghari called the Strait of Hormuz an “invincible red line” and warned that U.S. strikes on bridges or power plants would trigger attacks on infrastructure across the region.

The U.S. reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports on July 15 and fired on a Curacao-flagged tanker that it said ignored warnings while sailing toward Iran’s main oil export terminal. Iranian officials reported more than 35 people killed and over 300 wounded since the latest round of strikes began, according to PBS News. Iran retaliated on July 16 with missile and drone strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait, both of which host U.S. forces.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps separately threatened to open a second front at the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea chokepoint connecting to the Gulf of Aden, using Houthi allies in Yemen to disrupt shipping there, according to Al Jazeera. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said on July 16 that it is still working to bring both governments back to the negotiating table but acknowledged the effort is becoming harder. Brent crude traded above $85 a barrel on July 16, more than 15% above its pre-war price, raising political pressure on Trump ahead of November’s congressional elections.

Update, July 19, 2026: An Iranian negotiator announced that Tehran is suspending its commitments to the interim ceasefire deal and accused the U.S. of violating it. The U.S. military reported a service member killed in Iraq on Saturday during the controlled detonation of a downed Iranian drone, bringing the total number of U.S. deaths since the war began to 17, according to the Associated Press.

Iran fired missiles toward the Jordanian port city of Aqaba on Sunday, and Israeli military officials warned that debris could cross into Israeli territory for the first time in weeks. Kuwait reported that a power and water desalination plant was struck for the second consecutive day, causing fires. Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary-General Jasem Mohamed al-Budaiwi accused Iran of war crimes for the strikes on civilian infrastructure.

The 60-day window the interim deal established to negotiate a permanent settlement has passed its halfway point. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned of “unforgettable lessons” if U.S. strikes continue, while Iranian authorities reported at least 50 people killed and 517 wounded in the latest attacks. The U.S. also reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, redirecting five ships and disabling one since the blockade began.

Update, July 21, 2026: The US military confirmed a tenth consecutive night of strikes on Iran on July 20, hitting military command centers and air defense systems at Gulf ports including Bandar Mahshahr, Chabahar, and the northwestern city of Tabriz. Trump ordered the strikes in retaliation for the deaths of three service members, including Pte Isabella Gonzales, 19, of Texas, and Lt Tyler James Feehan, 25, of Hawaii, killed in an Iranian strike on the Muwaffaq Salti base in Jordan. A third service member remains unaccounted for, with unidentified remains found near the site.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck two oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz and claimed to have destroyed an Amazon data center in Bahrain using cruise missiles, according to state news agency IRNA. Kuwait reported Iranian strikes on power and water desalination plants, and Jordan intercepted five drones. Six vessels crossed the strait on July 20, down from eight the day before, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler.

Trump said in the Oval Office that the US would strike Mount Kolang Gaz La following reports Iran had moved nuclear centrifuges to the site, though he noted the move means little without fissile material present. Tehran confirmed that diplomatic messages are still passing through intermediaries, but no talks have been scheduled. Brent crude has risen 23% over the past two weeks and is nearing $90 a barrel, with the probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike by November doubling to 80%, according to ANZ.

Update, July 23, 2026: On July 23, the Trump administration signed a 30-year agreement with Saudi Arabia to transfer U.S. civilian nuclear power technology, a deal that could allow Riyadh to establish a domestic uranium enrichment facility under U.S. oversight. The agreement does not include the “gold standard” safeguards the U.S. required of the UAE under a 2009 civil nuclear deal, and Saudi Arabia has refused to sign the IAEA Additional Protocol, which authorizes snap inspections.

Former Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman told the Kan public broadcaster that the agreement “crosses a red line” and puts “the whole Middle East into an insane nuclear arms race.” Israeli Economic Minister Nir Barkat, speaking on Army Radio, said Israel could manage a Saudi civilian nuclear program but declined to answer whether Israel could accept a nuclear-capable Saudi Arabia.

Trump posted on social media that the deal is “totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords” and claimed there will be “no enrichment,” without explaining how enrichment would be barred under a deal that explicitly permits a domestic enrichment facility. Netanyahu’s office called the Abraham Accords condition “a historic leap forward for peace in the Middle East,” though no normalization deal is on the table and the Israeli government has not offered the concessions on Palestinian statehood that Saudi Arabia has said it requires. (Source: Foreign Policy, July 23, 2026)

Update, July 28, 2026: Iran and Oman exchanged competing proposals on July 28 for managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with Oman offering a joint regional mechanism modeled on the Strait of Malacca’s voluntary-fee system. Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi rejected the Omani equal-division plan, saying it does not address Tehran’s security concerns, and counter-proposed that Iran manage traffic through its territorial waters while Oman manages part of the opposite lane.

The United States suspended its air strike campaign against Iran over the weekend following pressure from regional mediators, with both sides returning to the June memorandum of understanding as a reference point for talks. GCC foreign ministers held a video call on July 28 to coordinate on freedom of navigation through the waterway, according to Qatar’s Foreign Ministry.

The sustained closure of the strait has forced Gulf Coast refiners to replace lost Middle Eastern supply. Venezuelan crude imports into Texas have risen from roughly 110,000 barrels per day in January to 575,000 barrels per day in June, with Texas refineries absorbing 43% of that volume, according to S&P Global Energy.

Update, July 31, 2026: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck two oil tankers attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. aerial escort, saying the ships had used an “undeclared route” close to the Omani coast. The strait has been effectively closed to commercial traffic for two weeks, and crude oil crossed $90 a barrel on July 30 after the U.S. struck Iranian targets in retaliation for attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan.

President Trump convened his cabinet at Camp David on July 31 to discuss the conflict, which has now lasted five months despite his early promise it would end in weeks. A Reuters-Ipsos poll released this week found that one in three Americans support the war, the lowest figure recorded since the conflict began.

Congressional backing is also narrowing: the U.S. Senate voted 49-50 on a war powers resolution urging Trump to halt military operations, rejecting it by a single vote. ExxonMobil’s profits have doubled since the conflict began, and Chevron reported more than five times its profits from the same period last year, according to The Guardian.

Update, August 2, 2026: Trump announced on Truth Social late Saturday that he was canceling planned strikes on Iran, saying the “perimeters of a deal has been agreed to” and that any agreement would require Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end its nuclear program. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke with Trump by phone Saturday and urged him to prioritize dialogue, according to the Saudi Press Agency.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that negotiations with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz have entered their “final stages.” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Tehran and Muscat were close to agreeing on a new maritime route through Hormuz, separate from the existing northern and southern corridors, though details of the proposed route were not released.

The June ceasefire collapsed within weeks over a dispute about shipping corridors through Hormuz, with fighting resuming in July. Mediators are now attempting to revive that agreement, according to Hassam Ghashghavi, spokesman for the Iranian parliament’s national security commission, who said an Iranian delegation may travel to Muscat as part of ongoing diplomacy.

Update, August 4, 2026: Iran and Oman made progress toward a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, regional officials told the Associated Press. Under the emerging framework, ships would enter the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled route and exit through an Omani-controlled route, with service fees charged for security and environmental preservation. Any final deal is linked to the U.S. lifting its blockade on Iran’s ports.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed progress at the State Department, saying “there’s been progress made in those talks, but not finality yet.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on CNBC there was “a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait.” Trump called the new talks Iran’s “last chance” before military escalation, describing a two-phase plan: reopening the strait first, then pursuing denuclearization.

The June interim agreement, which launched 60 days of talks, collapsed over escalating hostilities, and its deadline falls roughly two weeks out. On August 4, a cargo ship off the Omani coast in the strait reported being struck by an unknown projectile, sustaining damage according to British maritime security firm Ambrey. Iran has repeatedly attacked ships using a U.S.-overseen bypass route in recent weeks.

Update, August 6, 2026: Negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained unresolved as of August 6, with Iran claiming it is in the “final stage” of drafting a deal with Oman. A proposed 60-day framework would route outbound traffic through Omani waters and require parties to begin de-mining the strait’s median lane within 30 days of signing.

Core terms remain in dispute. Iran is demanding the right to board and charge commercial vessels transiting the waterway, while Gulf mediators insist inspections must be supervised and any fees made voluntary. Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency, which is closely linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, published a purported draft that would ban U.S. and Israeli ships from using the strait, a condition the United States is unlikely to accept.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies reported that U.S. inventories of Patriot interceptors have been reduced by two-thirds since the war began, with THAAD missile stocks cut by one-half. The White House denied a munitions shortage, telling ABC News the U.S. has “far more munitions than anyone in the world,” a claim that contradicts Trump’s prior statements used to justify halting Patriot shipments to Ukraine.

Update, August 8, 2026: Iran struck an ADNOC tanker with a missile as it transited the Strait of Hormuz in the early hours of Saturday, according to the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Abu Dhabi attributed the attack to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and called on Tehran to halt strikes and reopen the waterway fully and without conditions.

ADNOC said 15 of its vessels have been hit by missiles and drones since the conflict began, including three in the current week alone, killing one crew member and injuring 20 others. The company said it has continued to meet customer requirements but has been significantly affected by what it described as unprovoked attacks on its personnel and assets.

Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary-General Jassim Mohammed al-Budaiwi condemned the strike as a “dangerous and unacceptable escalation” and called for international action to protect maritime navigation. Saudi Arabia cited the attack as a grave breach of international law and UN Resolution 2817, and demanded an immediate halt to Iranian strikes, holding Tehran responsible for the consequences.

(https://www.aljazeera.com)]